Commercial auto sets the tone for 2026 — and third-party scoring models arrive in force.
Across all four regions, commercial auto was the loudest line in January, led by heavy-truck, livery and emergency-fleet classes. The deeper story: credit, telematics and catastrophe scoring models began pricing commercial risks carrier by carrier.
The month in numbers
Northeast Auto-led
CAR’s Massachusetts residual book set limos +15% and long-haul +24.4% across 47,200 policyholders; State Farm and Hereford livery in New York followed. Carriers tempered hikes below indicated need, citing ~199% combined ratios.
Southeast Hard auto
Skyward Specialty led Mississippi commercial auto ~+25% (50%+ on some trucks), with Sentry truckers +18.9% in Alabama. Auto-Owners’ Georgia Farm & Ranch carried a 54.5% indicated need across 3,733 policyholders.
Midwest / NW Structural
Great West’s Kansas trucking book led at +14% (38.5% max), but the real action was on page 3 — Nationwide Agribusiness, National General and others wiring LexisNexis/CAB scoring into farm and fleet auto.
Southwest Highest reach
FCCI’s Texas auto led on rate (+41.4%, 88% max), but Progressive County Mutual moved the quarter’s biggest book — 121,802 Texas policyholders at +10.7%. ZestyAI/CoreLogic wildfire scoring and two agribusiness exits underscored a hardening Southwest.
Rate trends by line
| Line | Typical approved increase | Where it concentrated |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Auto | +10% to +40% (NYC / heavy-truck tails 70–88%) | TX, CA, MA, KS, NY |
| Workers Comp | Flat to favorable; increases via LCM / tier shifts | VA, CA (isolated) |
| General Liability | +12% to +24% | CO, VA, NC |
| CMP / BOP | +18% to +44% | CA, NY, KS |
Cross-Region Patterns
Scoring models go mainstream
LexisNexis credit, Carfax/odometer vehicle history, telematics and ZestyAI/CoreLogic wildfire scores all entered commercial pricing the same month, in at least three regions.
Commercial auto is the through-line
Every region led with commercial auto. Heavy-truck, livery and emergency-fleet classes carried the largest increases nationwide.
Workers comp stayed soft
Bureau loss costs trended down; most approved WC was favorable or neutral, with increases delivered quietly through loss-cost multipliers and tier shifts.
Tempered now, more later
Approved increases ran well below indicated need in several regions (199%+ combined ratios cited) — a tell that second filings are coming.
Coverage & structural watch
Scoring & tiering (30 filings)
Credit, telematics and catastrophe scores entered commercial pricing — LexisNexis, Carfax/odometer history, ZestyAI/CoreLogic wildfire — across NE, MW and SW.
Coverage contraction (71 filings)
Farm and Main-Street BOP forms tightened; agribusiness eligibility narrowed as carriers re-underwrote weather-exposed books.
Market exits (2)
The quarter’s first exits hit agribusiness and wildfire-exposed risks — Markel and Chubb wildfire ineligibility.
Biggest filings nationwide
| State | Carrier | Line | Change | Policyholders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | Progressive County Mutual | Commercial Auto | +10.7% | 121,802 |
| CA | AmTrust | Workers Comp | +8%, min-prem to $2,500 | 88,139 |
| MA | CAR (residual market) | Commercial Auto | +15% to +24.4% | 47,200 |
| VA | The Hartford | Workers Comp | LCM reset | 43,874 |
| NY | State Farm | Commercial Auto | +19% (BIPD +25%) | 35,645 |
| CO | Allstate Indemnity | General Liability | +24% | 31,999 |
| NY | State Farm | CMP / BOP | +17.7% (max +26.7%) | 24,649 |
| OH | Progressive | Commercial Auto | +6.8% (to +15%) | 24,500 |
