Nevada resets workers comp, and predictive rating engines spread across the country.
February’s market-wide signal came from a bureau — Nevada’s statewide WC reset. Underneath, carriers rolled out hundred-band predictive rating engines and quietly stripped coverage even as headline rates stayed “tempered.”
The month in numbers
Northeast Tempered
Safety Group’s Massachusetts auto led (+6.45%, buses +15%) across 19,929 policyholders, with State Farm Ohio HNOA +22.9%. Visible hikes held below indicated, while State Farm’s Customer Rating Index introduced up-to-100% black-box swings.
Southeast Depopulation
The Hartford’s Tennessee WC ran a max 2.669 multiplier as it depopulated 25,569 policyholders, and American Family’s North Carolina BOP carried a 34.8% indicated need. Behavioral underwriting rules (quote-timing, food-delivery HNOA) spread.
Midwest / NW Data-driven
Travelers led Kansas auto (+23.9%), and Auto-Owners’ Idaho package book (10,233 PH) raised snow-removal +35% and real-estate dev +40%. Progressive Iowa added annual-mileage scoring; State Farm Montana introduced CRI.
Southwest Bureau reset
Nevada’s NCCI filing reset workers comp +21.6% statewide (excavation +44%) — a floor every carrier inherits. AmTrust’s 250-band Colorado BOP engine and Farmers dropping UM/UIM on 105,162 umbrella policies showed the rate-up / coverage-down squeeze.
Rate trends by line
| Line | Typical approved increase | Where it concentrated |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Auto | +15% to +25% | TX, KS, MA, OH |
| Workers Comp | Bureau reset +21.6% (NV); depopulation elsewhere | NV, TN |
| General Liability | +12% to +56% (management liability) | CA, NE |
| CMP / BOP | +12% to +60% indicated | CO, ID, KS |
Cross-Region Patterns
A bureau sets the floor
Nevada’s statewide WC reset is the kind of advisory move that re-prices every adopting carrier — prioritized as a market-wide signal.
Hundred-band rating engines
AmTrust’s 250 Risk-Assessment-Band model and State Farm’s Customer Rating Index replace a handful of tiers with near-continuous, data-driven pricing.
Coverage down while rates rise
Farmers stripped UM/UIM from 105,162 umbrella policies; USLI added PFAS exclusions — the real cost increase isn’t always in the rate line.
Behavioral underwriting
Quote-timing discount penalties and food-delivery HNOA crackdowns show carriers pricing how a risk behaves, not just what it is.
Coverage & structural watch
Scoring & tiering (22 filings)
Predictive engines went continuous — AmTrust 250-band, State Farm CRI (±100%), Progressive annual-mileage segmentation.
Coverage contraction (80 filings)
Farmers dropped UM/UIM on 105,162 umbrella policies; USLI added PFAS exclusions; percentage wind/hail deductibles spread on Plains package books.
Underwriting revisions (63 filings)
Eligibility tightened via quote-timing penalties, food-delivery HNOA limits, and Hartford’s Tennessee WC depopulation.
Biggest filings nationwide
| State | Carrier | Line | Change | Policyholders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | Farmers (Truck Ins Exchange) | Umbrella / Excess | UM/UIM stripped | 105,162 |
| TN | The Hartford | Workers Comp | Depopulation / max 2.669 LCM | 25,569 |
| MA | Safety Group | Commercial Auto | +6.45% (buses +15%) | 19,929 |
| OH | State Farm | Commercial Auto | HNOA +22.9% | 19,132 |
| ID | Auto-Owners | CMP / BOP | Snow removal +35%, RE dev +40% | 10,233 |
| IA | Progressive | Commercial Auto | +10.4% + mileage scoring | 9,747 |
| KS | State Farm | CMP / BOP | +12% | 8,854 |
| TX | Travelers | Commercial Auto | +19.5% | 8,843 |
