The ISO loss-cost cycle hits: 20–40% auto increases land coast to coast — and State Farm purges 90,000 California package accounts.
March was the month the 2024 ISO commercial-auto loss-cost adoption showed up in approved rates everywhere at once. Alongside it, the quarter’s largest single move: State Farm non-renewing a 90,575-policyholder California CMP book.
The month in numbers
Northeast Heavy truck
Progressive’s Drive New Jersey book led at +11.1% (heavy trucks +19.5%) over 32,502 policyholders, with Auto-Owners’ Ohio package +30% on managed real estate. Carriers split liability increases from flat physical damage.
Southeast Carrier playbook
AmTrust’s South Carolina WC carried a 25.4% indicated need as Wesco shifted to AmTrust paper, while Travelers ran an identical proprietary-limit auto play across North Carolina (+26.3%) and Tennessee (+17.2%). Hiscox reset GL class by class.
Midwest / NW Re-engineered
A structural month — page-1 rate qualifiers were thin. Hiscox property-management GL led the wider market (ID/MT), with SECURA ND, Nationwide Agribusiness NE and Grinnell’s South Dakota confined-livestock base up ~350%. GPS travel-tiers and black-box telematics spread.
Southwest Loss-cost wave
AIG/Glatfelter’s Texas emergency-services book hit law enforcement +103.6% and ambulances +47.2%, while State Farm purged a 90,575-policyholder California CMP book and Berkshire raised CA WC minimum premiums +64%. Scoring now reads Google reviews and Dun & Bradstreet data.
Rate trends by line
| Line | Typical approved increase | Where it concentrated |
|---|---|---|
| Commercial Auto | +11% to +30% (ISO loss-cost cycle) | NJ, NC, TN, TX, CA |
| Workers Comp | Min-prem +64%; tier / paper shifts | CA, SC, MO |
| General Liability | +7.6% to +50% (mgmt / class resets) | NC, VA, CA |
| CMP / BOP | Exits + liability up to +83% (State Farm CA) | CA, OH |
Cross-Region Patterns
The loss-cost cycle arrives
ISO’s 2024 commercial-auto loss-cost adoption drove 20–40% increases across unrelated carriers in every region — the clearest market-wide signal of the quarter.
State Farm’s California purge
A 90,575-policyholder CMP non-renewal puts motels, salons and day cares into the market at once — those accounts are shopping now.
Scoring reads everything
AmTrust scoring Google reviews and The Hanover pulling Dun & Bradstreet show third-party data moving well beyond credit and telematics.
Liability up, physical damage flat
Carriers repeatedly split big BI/liability increases from flat physical damage — a tell for where the loss pressure actually sits.
Coverage & structural watch
Scoring & tiering (28 filings)
Third-party data went beyond credit — AmTrust scored Google reviews, The Hanover pulled Dun & Bradstreet, ISO Risk Analyzer adoption widened.
Coverage contraction (70 filings)
New exclusions (firearms, abuse, emerging risk) stacked on rate; >50-year-building surcharges and confined-livestock base resets hit Plains books.
Market exits (4)
State Farm purged a 90,575-policy CA CMP book; United Fire exited a legacy Missouri BOP block.
Biggest filings nationwide
| State | Carrier | Line | Change | Policyholders |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | State Farm | CMP / BOP | Market exit (+83% liability) | 90,575 |
| CA | Berkshire Hathaway (BHHC) | Workers Comp | Min-prem +64% | 80,531 |
| NJ | Progressive (Drive NJ) | Commercial Auto | +11.1% (trucks +19.5%) | 32,502 |
| OH | Auto-Owners | CMP / BOP | Managed RE +30%, snow +35% | 24,682 |
| MO | Missouri Employers Mutual | Workers Comp | Tier / rule revision | 13,336 |
| NC | Hiscox | General Liability | +7.6% (mgmt +50%) | 10,650 |
| SC | AmTrust | Workers Comp | Wesco→AmTrust, 25.4% indicated | 8,545 |
| CA | The Hanover | General Liability | +28.4% + 5 new exclusions | 6,828 |
