Commercial auto owns the front page — and a for-hire trucking shakeout is underway.
In May, every region led with commercial auto and not one had a qualifying workers-comp rate increase. Underneath the rate, carriers are exiting for-hire trucking, banning EV trucks, and bolting third-party scoring onto nearly every filing.
The month in numbers
Northeast Auto-led
Erie’s New York commercial-auto book set the tone — a 31.6% average (72.9% on NYC trucks) across 20,248 policyholders — with Berkshire Hathaway GUARD, National General and an AIG ambulance filing close behind. No qualifying workers-comp rate increase cleared the region all month.
Southeast Trucking shakeout
Shelter led Mississippi commercial auto (+15.6% average, +24.6% on truck fleets), but the bigger move was carriers leaving: Shelter non-renewed its for-hire Truckmen book across five states. Roof-age coverage erosion and credit scoring spread across property and GL.
Midwest / NW ISO floor + EV ban
An ISO North Dakota advisory reset commercial-auto increased-limit factors +29.2% (heavy trucks +39.7%) — a floor every adopting carrier inherits — while Shelter’s Missouri book ran +15.8% (31.2% on truckmen). Great American excluded electric and hybrid trucks across five states.
Southwest The biggest books
The country’s largest auto books moved here — Progressive’s 85,906-policy California book (~8% filed against a 36.4% indication) and State Farm’s 94,913-policy Texas book (+13.3% liability) — with Kemper Texas +24.4% and State Farm Oklahoma +49.9%.
Rate trends by line
| Line | Typical approved increase | Where it concentrated | Notable carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Auto | +8% to +50% (heavy-truck/liability tails higher) | TX, CA, NY, OK — all regions | State Farm (TX/OK), Progressive (CA), Kemper (TX), Erie (NY) |
| Workers Comp | Quiet — no qualifying rate increase | Nationwide | — (flat to favorable) |
| General Liability | +10% to +35% (ISO 2026 GL loss costs) | CO, UT, NC, GA | Cincinnati (PA/TX), Liberty Mutual (CO), Hiscox |
| CMP / BOP | +5% to +37% (habitational & hotels) | KS, KY, UT, NJ | Capital Ins (CA), Allstate (KY), Shelter (KS), WCF National (UT) |
The Big Picture
May 2026 was a one-line market: commercial auto. Every region’s front page led with it, the five largest filings by reach nationwide are all auto, and not one region produced a qualifying workers-comp rate increase. The pricing pressure that sat in property and comp two years ago has migrated decisively to the vehicle.
Two forces are compounding. First, the 2024 ISO commercial-auto loss-cost adoption is still washing through approved rates — this month an ISO North Dakota advisory reset increased-limit factors nearly 30%, a floor every adopting carrier inherits. Second, social-inflation severity keeps liability indications running far above what regulators let carriers take at once, which is why Progressive’s California book shows ~8% taken against a 36% need.
So the market is repricing two ways at once — through rate, and through structure. Carriers are exiting for-hire trucking outright, banning whole vehicle classes (Great American’s EV/hybrid-truck exclusion), and bolting third-party scoring — credit, telematics, vehicle history — onto nearly every filing. The policy is getting smaller and more finely priced as the premium climbs.
Cross-Region Patterns
Commercial auto is the entire front page
Auto led page 1 in all four regions, and the five largest filings by reach nationwide — State Farm TX, Progressive CA, Kemper TX, State Farm OK, Erie NY — are every one commercial auto.
Workers comp went silent
Not one region had a qualifying WC rate increase. Comp is flat-to-favorable while auto hardens — the inverse of where loss pressure sat two years ago.
Scoring & telematics everywhere
Third-party data — LexisNexis CRI, TransUnion/CARFAX vehicle history, telematics, credit GLMs — rode on nearly every auto and package filing this month.
The indicated-vs-taken gap
Progressive filed ~8% on a 36.4% indication; CNA filed 7.5% of a 34.5% need. Phased and capped increases across the country signal a second wave coming.
Coverage & Structural Watch
Coverage contraction (30 filings)
Great American’s five-state EV/hybrid-truck exclusion; roof-age and ACV erosion (EMC, Church Mutual, The Hartford); new gen-AI, PFAS, war/cyber and assault-or-battery exclusions across liability.
Scoring & telematics (26 filings)
State Farm CRI (up to 2.5× swings), AmTrust’s 250-band engine, TransUnion/CARFAX vehicle-history scores (Acuity) and driver-point models (IAT) now price fleets on third-party data.
ISO advisories reset the floor
An ND commercial-auto advisory (+29.2% ILF) and 2026 GL loss costs re-price every adopting carrier — watch for downstream filings adopting them.
Market Exits
For-hire trucking dominated May’s exits. Shelter pulled its entire Truckmen program across five states (~4,327 motor carriers); Triangle and Harco followed in agribusiness and California. When a motor-carrier policy non-renews the federal MCS-90 endorsement cancels with it — these insureds must replace coverage immediately, and they are shopping now.
| Carrier | Line / Segment | States | Policyholders | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter | For-hire trucking (Truckmen) | KY · MS · MO · KS · OK | ~4,327 | Aug–Nov 2026 |
| Triangle | Motor carrier (agribusiness package) | TN · KS | n/d | Jul 1, 2026 |
| Harco National (IAT) | Motor-carrier program | CA | 13 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Utica First | EPLI & identity-recovery (BOP) | NY | 476 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| FCCI | NUCA group dividend program | AL | n/d | Jul 1, 2026 |
| AF Group (Williamsburg) | Workers comp | CA | 25 | Aug 1, 2026 |
Biggest filings nationwide
| State | Carrier | Line | Change | Policyholders | $/policy | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | State Farm | Commercial Auto | +13.3% liab. | 94,913 | $2,594 | Apr 10, 2026 |
| CA | Progressive | Commercial Auto | ~8% (36.4% ind.) | 85,906 | $11,711 | Oct 3, 2026 |
| TX | Infinity / Kemper | Commercial Auto | +24.4% BI | 32,559 | $5,162 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| OK | State Farm | Commercial Auto | +49.9% liab. | 22,531 | $747 | Mar 30, 2026 |
| NY | Erie | Commercial Auto | +31.6% (72.9% NYC) | 20,248 | $7,971 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| NY | National General | Commercial Auto | +12.3% (PIP +100%) | 12,836 | $5,687 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| MO | Shelter | Commercial Auto | +15.8% (truckmen 31%) | 11,188 | $1,226 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| CA | Capital Insurance | CMP / BOP | +11% | 10,510 | $27,147 | Jan 15, 2027 |
| PA | Selective | Commercial Auto | +10.8% | 10,492 | $11,123 | Sep 1, 2026 |
What It Means — Your Move
Market fleets early
Auto indications are running 30–55% while approved rates lag. Today’s increase signals a second filing — get ahead of renewals, especially fleets and truck/tractor/trailer classes.
Find homes for displaced trucking
Shelter, Triangle and Harco exits put thousands of for-hire carriers into the market with MCS-90 coverage lapsing at non-renewal. These are time-sensitive placements — call them first.
Read structure, not just rate
EV-truck exclusions, roof-age/ACV changes, and new gen-AI/PFAS/assault exclusions can matter more than the headline percentage. Audit endorsements at renewal.
