June’s market moved through the fine print — exits, advisories and scores, not the rate line.
May was a wall of commercial-auto rate hikes. June flipped: the biggest books are package, not auto; the auto increases that qualified are surgical, not broad; and the real moves are a multi-state towing-program exit, ISO advisories resetting the floor, and third-party scoring on nearly everything.
The month in numbers
Northeast WC wakes up
Workers comp carried the rate volume for once — Berkshire Hathaway took Pennsylvania’s biggest comp book up 8.1% (27,494 policyholders), with Argo and Next moving PA and MD. The loudest auto move wasn’t a rate at all: an ISO Vermont advisory reset long-haul loss costs +91.7%.
Southeast Fragmented + exit
Commercial auto fractured into class-specific shocks — public transit +256% (Grange TN), non-owned +250% (Federated GA) — while AmGUARD pulled its KBK Towing program across four Southeast states. Erie ran the same abuse re-rate as up north: NC hotels +78%, apartments +70% under a flat average.
Midwest / NW Structural
A structural month — one qualifying rate increase region-wide (Shelter KS auto +14%) as comp stayed soft. The marquee moves were exits and scoring: AmGUARD towing out of ND/KS/ID, Acuity pricing on CARFAX vehicle history, and an exclusion wave (PFAS, gen-AI, human-trafficking).
Southwest Trucking crisis + big books
The trucking rate crisis is real here — Transverse Utah +42.4%, AXA XL California +32.9% liability, Acuity Texas up to 46% on heavy trucks — alongside the country’s biggest books: Allstate’s 148,492-policy Texas landlord book and Farmers’ 61,303-policy California BOP. Three carriers quit for-hire/towing the same month.
Rate trends by line
| Line | Typical approved increase | Where it concentrated | Notable carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Auto | Class-specific +10% to +46% (transit/non-owned tails to +250%) | UT, CA, TX, TN, KS | Transverse (UT), AXA XL (CA), Acuity (TX), Grange (TN) |
| Workers Comp | +8% to +15% in the Northeast; soft elsewhere | PA, MD | Berkshire Hathaway (PA), Argo (PA), Next (MD) |
| CMP / BOP & Package | Flat-to-+27% averages hiding class re-rates | PA, NC, GA, TX, CA | Erie (PA/NC), Allstate (TX), State Farm (GA/VA), Farmers (CA) |
| General Liability | ISO 2025 GL loss costs +8% to +30% + class surcharges | VA, GA | ISO/Verisk advisory, Selective, Hiscox |
The Big Picture
If May was a wall of commercial-auto rate hikes, June was the opposite: the loudest moves happened in structure, not the headline rate. The ten largest books this month are almost all package and BOP, and the auto increases that qualified are surgical — a class here, a territory there — rather than broad.
The defining event is an exit. Berkshire Hathaway’s AmGUARD is discontinuing its KBK Towing program across eleven states, with mandatory non-renewals starting in late October — and it’s not alone: 21 market exits cleared our screen this month, from Shelter and Harco leaving for-hire trucking (again) to specialty programs in auto repair, amusement comp and agribusiness. When these non-renew, MCS-90 and program coverage go with them; those accounts are shopping now.
Where rates did move, ISO advisories are the engine — a Vermont trucking advisory (+91.7%), 2025 GL loss costs rippling through Southeast package carriers, and a Virginia BOP advisory touching 219,000 policyholders. And underneath almost everything: third-party scoring. CARFAX and TransUnion vehicle history, LexisNexis and Fortegra credit, cyber-hygiene scans — carriers are repricing risk on data, often hiding two- and three-times swings under a modest filed average.
Cross-Region Patterns
Structure over rate
The biggest books this month are package and BOP, not auto — and the qualifying auto increases are class-specific (public transit +256%, non-owned +250%), not whole-book. The story left the rate line.
A nationwide towing & trucking exit wave
AmGUARD’s KBK Towing program is pulling out across eleven states, on top of Shelter and Harco leaving for-hire trucking again and Intact’s non-trucking-liability exits — 21 market exits in all.
ISO advisories are the rate engine
A Vermont trucking advisory (+91.7%), 2025 GL loss costs, and a Virginia BOP advisory (219,000 policyholders) reset the floor for every adopting carrier — the carrier filings follow.
Flat average, brutal class factors
Erie’s abuse re-rate runs +70–79% on hotels and apartments under a near-flat average, in PA and NC alike. Read the class factors, not the headline percentage.
Scoring is everywhere
CARFAX/TransUnion vehicle history, LexisNexis/Fortegra credit and cyber-hygiene scans now price auto, BOP and GL — the model, not the manual, is setting the rate.
Coverage & Structural Watch
Market exits (21)
AmGUARD’s KBK Towing across eleven states (non-renewals from Oct 28), Shelter and Harco for-hire trucking, Intact non-trucking liability (IN/TN), plus auto-repair, amusement-comp and agribusiness programs. Displaced accounts are in the market now.
Scoring & tiering (27)
CARFAX/TransUnion vehicle history (Acuity, Federated), LexisNexis/Fortegra credit (Next, State Farm CRI, Erie Cyber 3.0), Farmers’ Smart Plan and Travelers cyber-hygiene — data pricing across auto, BOP and GL.
Coverage contraction (38)
PFAS / forever-chemical, generative-AI, assault and human-trafficking exclusions; ZEV/hybrid-truck bans continue; cyber sublimits cut; Erie’s multi-state abuse-coverage re-rate.
Market Exits
For-hire trucking and towing dominated June’s exits, led by Berkshire Hathaway’s AmGUARD discontinuing its KBK Towing program across eleven states — mandatory non-renewals begin in late October. Twenty-one exits cleared our screen in all. When a motor-carrier or program policy non-renews, the coverage (and any MCS-90) goes with it; these insureds must replace it fast.
| Carrier | Line / Segment | States | Policyholders | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AmGUARD (BH GUARD) | KBK Towing program (commercial auto) | TX·OK·NM·CA·NC·GA·SC·MS·ND·KS·ID | ~800+ known | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Shelter | For-hire trucking (Truckmen) | CO (+ others) | ~121 (CO) | Aug 1, 2026 |
| Harco National (IAT) | Motor-carrier program | CA | 13 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Intact / Atlantic Specialty | Non-trucking liability / Truckers | IN · TN | n/d | Nov 1, 2026 |
| Argo Group | Choice Auto Repair program | VA | n/d | Jun 1, 2026 |
| AXA XL (T.H.E.) | Amusement & Entertainment WC | SC | — | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Triangle | Motor carrier + crime (agribusiness) | MO | n/d | Jul 1, 2026 |
| GuideOne | Artisan contractors (NIF) | CA | 516 | Aug 15, 2026 |
| Grain Dealers Mutual (Am Fam) | Commercial package (full withdrawal) | OK | n/d | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Williamsburg National (AF Group) | Workers comp | CA | 24 | Aug 1, 2026 |
Biggest filings nationwide
| State | Carrier | Line | Change | Policyholders | $/policy | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA | ISO / Verisk (advisory) | BOP | +8.3% (retail +30%) | 219,372 | $154 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| TX | Allstate Indemnity | CMP Landlord | +19% | 148,492 | $2,287 | Apr 20, 2026 |
| PA | Erie | CMP / Package | ~flat; ASM +70–79% | 94,417 | $3,980 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| CA | Farmers (Truck Ins Exch) | BOP | +3.5% + Smart Plan | 61,303 | $11,580 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| NC | Erie | CMP / Package | +15%; ASM +70–78% | 44,327 | $3,203 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| GA | State Farm | CMP / Package | +15% (apts +27.7%) | 35,151 | $3,229 | Aug 15, 2026 |
| PA | Berkshire Hathaway | Workers Comp | +8.1% | 27,494 | $4,165 | Jul 1, 2026 |
| VA | State Farm | CMP / Package | +4.3% | 25,570 | $1,937 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| OR | State Farm | CMP / Package | mixed (condos +13.9%) | 23,846 | $2,242 | Jul 15, 2026 |
What It Means — Your Move
Rescue the displaced
Twenty-one exits — led by AmGUARD’s eleven-state towing pull — put whole programs into the market with coverage lapsing at non-renewal. These are time-sensitive, high-intent placements. Work the exit lists first.
Read the classes, not the average
A 0.5% Erie filing hides +79% on abuse coverage; a 15% State Farm filing hides +27.7% on apartments. The filed average is marketing — the class factors are the account.
Get ahead of the ISO wave
A Vermont trucking advisory (+91.7%), 2025 GL loss costs and a 219,000-policy Virginia BOP advisory reset the floor for every adopting carrier. Where you see the advisory, the carrier filings are coming.
