The averages are calm. The fine print isn't.
Across 40 states, July's approved commercial filings tell one story twice: headline rates landed in the mid-single digits while the real action moved underneath them — scoring models, coverage cuts, whole-book repricings and a wave of program exits. Carriers keep taking a fraction of the rate their own actuaries say they need, which means the pressure isn't gone. It's deferred.
The month in four numbers
Northeast Pent-up rate
Commercial auto led (Progressive OH +6.5% across 38,412 policyholders; Travelers NJ +13.2%), but the theme was the gap: The Hartford took 8.1% on a 20,286-policy PA package book against a 19.5% indication, CNA just 7.4% against 31.2%, Philadelphia 5.7% against 19%. Carriers are banking a third of their need and reloading.
Southeast Abuse-liability wave
A sexual-misconduct and abuse-liability surge defined the region: Southern Mutual Church took 62.2% on Georgia sexual-misconduct coverage (first revision since 2008) and Philadelphia 24.9% on Alabama abuse & molestation, while carriers added assault/abuse exclusions to auto. State Farm led auto at +13% on 26,135 Georgia policyholders. (Florida files outside this SERFF feed.)
Midwest / NW Scoring & structure
Workers comp sat flat-to-down and the auto story was structural — State Farm's Customer Rating Index cut Nebraska 8.4% but raised Missouri liability up to 24% on the same model. The Hartford led the wider market at +7.9% (vs 20% indicated) and American National took 27.9% on South Dakota farm & ranch.
Southwest Reach & excess
Progressive's 6% Texas auto increase landed on 219,301 policyholders — the month's largest book by far — under a new Scoring Model v5.0. The excess market firmed hard: Farmers' Truck Insurance Exchange took 33.2% on California commercial umbrella after a 160% loss year, and ISO reset California EPLI loss costs +25%.
Rate trends by line — where July concentrated
| Line | Typical approved increase | Where it concentrated | Notable carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Workers Comp | Flat to down (−8% to +3%) | Bureau loss costs soft; carriers holding or cutting | Travelers (CA +3%), State Farm, AF Group (flat + book absorption) |
| Commercial Auto | +6% to +15% (scoring underneath) | Large books nationwide; new index/telematics models | Progressive, State Farm, Mercury, Travelers, Cincinnati (DC +41.6%) |
| BOP / Package | +7% to +19% (vs ~20–31% indicated) | Main Street; big indicated-vs-filed gaps | The Hartford, CNA, Quincy Mutual, Midvale (AmFam) |
| General Liability | +14% to +62% in hit segments | Abuse/sexual-misconduct; sports & wellness; nonprofits | Southern Mutual Church, Philadelphia, Great American, Church Mutual |
| Umbrella / Excess | +7% to +33% | Excess firming even where primary is flat | Farmers (CA +33.2%), Auto-Owners, Cincinnati |
| Farm & Ranch | +11% to +28% | Compounding on top of prior-year hikes | American National (SD +27.9%), Liberty Mutual |
| Cyber / E&O | +48% to +49% (law firms) | Small-firm lawyers' programs | ALPS (ID +49.1%, WV +48.3%) |
The Big Picture
July's headline number lied by omission. Averages clustered in the mid-single digits, but nearly every large filing carried an indicated need two to four times what the carrier actually took — The Hartford at 8% against 20%, CNA at 7% against 31%, United Financial at under 1% against 18%. That gap doesn't evaporate; it becomes next year's filing. Agents should read a modest approved increase on a stressed line as a down payment, not a settlement.
The real repricing happened in the machinery, not the rate. Twenty-four filings introduced or expanded scoring models — State Farm's Customer Rating Index (running in Nebraska, Missouri and Connecticut), Progressive's Scoring Model v5.0 on 219,000 Texas policyholders, and a driver-history wave built on CarFax, TransUnion and LexisNexis data (Federated, Canal, Chubb, Acuity). On these books the state 'average' is meaningless — an account's index score, not the filed percentage, decides its renewal.
One program moved through the country in a single month. Great American assumed the Vantapro sports-and-wellness general-liability book in at least nine states — Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Vermont — repricing it 52.3% where it reprices and cutting the medical-expense limit from $25,000 to $10,000 everywhere. Gyms, studios, leagues and wellness centers are paying more for materially less, and it's the same filing in every state.
And carriers kept leaving. Nineteen filings this month were exits, withdrawals or book transfers — from AmGUARD dropping Oregon towing to Accredited non-renewing 255 Michigan BOPs, Erie exiting a DC contractors program, T.H.E. abandoning amusement auto in South Carolina, and Argonaut handing 1,741 Vermont policies to an affiliate. Every exit is an account shopping right now, often in a class that's already hard to place.
Cross-Region Patterns
Indicated-vs-filed is the number to watch
The most useful figure in a 2026 filing isn't the approved rate — it's the indication behind it. Book after book shows carriers taking a third to a half of stated need. Where the gap is widest (CNA MD BOP 7.4% vs 31.2%; Great American wellness 52.3% vs 131%), a second filing is close to certain.
Scoring models are now the default, not the exception
Third-party data — driving records, vehicle history, credit, even litigation-funding disclosure — is pricing small commercial across every region. The same carrier can post a decrease and a 24% liability hike in the same model; the state average tells you nothing about your client's renewal.
Liability is bifurcating by segment
General liability isn't rising uniformly — it's spiking where the losses are: sexual-misconduct and abuse coverage (+24% to +62%), sports and wellness (+52%), nonprofits (+20%), and small-firm cyber (+48%). Broad GL is calmer; the hit segments are getting repriced hard and having coverage trimmed at the same time.
The excess tower is firming ahead of primary
Commercial umbrella and excess ran hotter than the primary lines beneath them — Farmers +33% in California, Auto-Owners and Cincinnati in the 7–8% range across the Midwest — a classic signal that reinsurers are pushing severity assumptions down the chain.
Workers comp is the quiet line — for now
Bureau loss costs stayed soft and most WC filings were flat or favorable. The exceptions are structural: carriers folding acquired books onto their paper (AF Group absorbing Star Insurance) and class exits (Trean leaving Oklahoma firefighter comp). Comp premium can still rise on an LCM or tier move while the market softens around it.
Coverage & Structural Watch
Medical limits and coverage floors are quietly dropping
The Great American wellness program halves the medical-expense limit nationwide; Progressive's United Financial added PFAS and data-privacy exclusions on a sub-1% filing; Cincinnati and Navigators added assault/battery and sexual-abuse exclusions to auto. The rate barely moved — the coverage did.
Scoring inputs are getting exotic
Beyond credit and telematics, carriers are now rating on vehicle history (TransUnion/CARFAX odometer and ownership data), litigation-funding disclosure, and 'size of risk' curves that swing a single account ±190% around a 0.3% filed average. Underwriting is increasingly happening in the algorithm, not the manual.
Book transfers are the new exit
Rather than simply non-renewing, carriers are migrating whole books to affiliates at a 0% headline (Liberty Mutual moving the State Auto book in Colorado; Argonaut to ANPAC in Vermont) with the real dislocation capped and phased in over years. The 0% is cosmetic; the underlying re-rate is 30%+.
Market Exits & Withdrawals
Where a carrier left the field this month — and the accounts now shopping.
| Carrier | Line / Segment | States | Policyholders | Effective / Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argonaut → ANPAC | Commercial auto + BOP (book transfer) | VT | 1,741 (1,084 + 657) | Transferring to affiliate |
| Accredited | Attune BOP program | MI | 255 policies | Non-renewing all |
| AmGUARD | KBK Towing commercial auto | OR | 53 policies | Effective Oct 28 |
| Erie | Fivestar Contractors package | DC | 47 legacy-system policies | Withdrawing |
| T.H.E. Insurance (AXA XL) | Amusement & entertainment auto | SC | not reported | Full withdrawal |
| Trean (7710 / Benchmark) | Firefighter workers comp class | OK | not reported | Class exit / non-renewal |
| Pharmacists Mutual | Grocery segment (within BOP) | MO | not reported | Segment exit + firearms exclusion |
| Oregon Mutual | New commercial BOP business | CA | not reported | New-business freeze |
| Liberty Mutual ← State Auto | CGL + commercial auto (migration) | CO | not reported | 0% headline, phased re-rate |
The Month's Biggest Filings by Reach
| State | Carrier | Line | Change | Policyholders | $/policy | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | Progressive | Commercial Auto | +6.0% | 219,301 | $4,822 | Aug 2026 |
| OH | Progressive | Commercial Auto | +6.5% | 38,412 | — | Aug 2026 |
| CA | Mercury | Commercial Auto | +14.9% | 28,357 | $8,551 | Dec 1, 2026 |
| CA | Travelers | Workers Comp | +3.0% | 27,116 | $17,676 | Sep 1, 2026 |
| GA | State Farm | Commercial Auto | +13.0% | 26,135 | $2,338 | Oct 12, 2026 |
| MO | State Farm | Commercial Auto | +2.7% | 21,515 | $861 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| PA | The Hartford | Commercial Package | +8.1% | 20,286 | — | Dec 23, 2026 |
| NE | State Farm | Commercial Auto | −8.4% | 17,267 | $395 | Apr 30, 2026 |
| CA | Farmers (Truck Ins Exch) | Commercial Umbrella | +33.2% | 13,624 | $1,678 | Oct 1, 2026 |
What It Means — Your Move
Quote the indication, not the rate
When a renewal comes in at +8%, pull the filing's indicated need before you celebrate. A wide gap means the carrier is under-water on the book and a bigger filing is queued — set the client's expectations for next year now, and shop the accounts sitting on the worst-scored end of the curve.
Audit sports, wellness, nonprofit and abuse-exposed accounts
The sharpest increases and coverage cuts hit narrow segments: gyms and studios (Great American's medical-limit cut), churches and youth-serving nonprofits (abuse/misconduct +24–62%), and small law firms (cyber +48%). These clients need a conversation before renewal, not after.
Track the exits — they're your pipeline
Nineteen programs left the field this month. Towing operators in Oregon, amusement risks in South Carolina, contractors in DC, Michigan Attune BOPs — those accounts are non-renewing into a hard market. Know which of your prospects sits on an exiting book before their carrier tells them.
On the Filing Watch news-read this month
The full ~10-minute audio rundown walks the month's throughline — why a calm set of averages is hiding the busiest structural month of the year — plus the scoring-model wave, the nine-state wellness repricing, and the exit list. Script in the distribution pack.
