Commercial auto is re-pricing across the Southwest — and Progressive just put a new scoring model on 219,000 Texas fleets.
This month's screen — approved rate increases touching 1,000+ policyholders at severity 4–5, in workers comp and commercial auto — came back all auto and almost all California, with one Texas filing towering over everything by sheer reach. Workers comp is quiet: the only qualifying WC increase was a modest Travelers +3% in California. Here's where the auto action actually is.
Industries in this issue's filings
Lead Filing
Progressive's 6% Texas auto increase lands on 219,301 policyholders — and installs Scoring Model v5.0 under a 15.5% indication
Approved July 7. On the surface it's the softest headline on this page — an average 6.0% — but it rides the largest book in the region by a wide margin: 219,301 Texas commercial-auto policyholders and roughly $1.06 billion in premium. A small percentage on a book that size is the reach story of the month. And the average understates the move: Progressive simultaneously rolls out Scoring Model v5.0, re-sorting every account onto a new index, while its own actuarial indication was 15.5% — more than double the filed rate. When a carrier takes barely a third of its indicated need on a book this large, the gap doesn't close; it reloads for the next filing. Any Texas fleet renewing with Progressive should expect its individual number to diverge from the 6% average depending on where the new model lands it.
Also Approved This Cycle
Mercury raises California commercial auto 14.9% — liability up 17%, plus a new financial-scoring debit
Mercury's average 14.9% is weighted toward a 17% liability hike, and it adds a financial-performance IRPM factor that can swing an account up to 10% either way based on its financials. New utility- and service-bed body-type codes pull in more work trucks. Farms, contractors, auto dealers and waste haulers are the exposed classes. Effective December 1 — line up alternatives now.
Nationwide Agribusiness takes 13.5% on California farm auto — concentrated in liability and heavy trucks
The increase is aimed at liability and heavy trucks, with Truck/Tractor/Trailer class factors and combined-single-limit increased-limit factors both pulled toward ISO. Farm and ranch operations running their own fleets are squarely in scope. Effective November 1.
Liberty Mutual wins 14% on California commercial auto — on top of 33.6% last year
A roughly 20% liability hike drives the 14.0% average, and it compounds on a 33.6% increase the prior year — two-year renewals are now running well over 50% above 2024. Effective April 6, 2027; model the compounding before renewal, not at it.
Where's workers comp — and what about Texas?
Workers comp is genuinely quiet across the Southwest this cycle: the only qualifying WC rate increase was Travelers' +3.0% in California, adopting the new WCIRB pure-premium rates with steeper Los Angeles territory tiers — modest, and the region's sole comp filing to clear the bar. On the auto side, Utica National's group-wide +13.1% Texas commercial-auto increase (1,287 policyholders, catching up to ISO legacy loss costs, with agricultural and professional-services programs hit hardest) also qualified but sits just behind the featured three. The scoring and migration action — where the pricing really moved — is on Page 3.
Excess and specialty liability is where the Southwest is really firming — led by a 33.2% California umbrella jump.
Same screen, every other commercial line: umbrella, employment-practices, abuse-and-molestation and farm carriers are all pushing rate, and several are taking far less than their own filings say they need. Farmers' umbrella book absorbed a 160% loss year; an ISO advisory just reset the employment-practices floor for the whole market. These books aren't done.
Industries in this issue's filings
Lead Filing
Farmers' Truck Insurance Exchange takes 33.2% on California commercial umbrella after a 160% loss year
Approved July 1, effective October 1. Farmers' Truck Insurance Exchange unit — a commercial-umbrella and excess book, not a trucking program — raises rates an average 33.2% following a 160% loss ratio in 2024. It also tightens the front end: habitational and real-estate building limits are capped for new business, and timeshare and short-term-rental risks are made ineligible outright. 13,624 policyholders and $22.9M in premium are affected. Contractors, wholesalers, retailers, real-estate and hospitality accounts carrying excess limits here should expect both the rate and the eligibility screen to bite — and start shopping their excess towers early.
Three Filings Worth a Closer Look
ISO Advisory — Market-Wide Signal: EPLI loss costs reset +25% in California
This is an ISO advisory loss-cost filing, not one carrier's rate — so it resets the floor for every carrier that builds on ISO EPLI loss costs, a roster that runs from Chubb and Travelers to AIG, Hartford, Liberty Mutual and W.R. Berkley. ISO won 25.0% against a 71.3% indication, so the signal is that far more rate is coming as adopters file up to it. Any employer renewing employment-practices coverage in California should treat this as the leading edge of a broad market move. Effective immediately.
Philadelphia Indemnity raises Texas abuse-and-molestation rates 23.9% — a second straight double-digit year
Citing loss ratios above 100%, Philadelphia Indemnity (Tokio Marine) takes 23.9% on Texas sexual-abuse-and-molestation coverage, following a 31.9% increase a year earlier — compounding to roughly 63% over two years. Schools, youth programs, social-services agencies, camps and religious organizations are the exposed classes and have the fewest alternative markets. Effective April 1, 2027.
Liberty Mutual takes 11% on California farmowners — with a 37% liability hike and tighter animal terms
The 11.0% average is weighted toward a 37% liability increase, and the coverage terms tighten alongside it: mandatory 80% coinsurance and protective-safeguard requirements for animal suffocation, plus restricted care/custody/control coverage. California farm and ranch operations feel both the rate and the new conditions. Effective September 28.
The Rest of the Qualifying List
| State | Carrier | Line / Sub-type | Severity | Policyholders | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | The Hanover Insurance Group | Other Liability — General Liability | 4 / 5 | 1,961 | Oct 1, 2026 |
| TX | Spinnaker (Harborway) | Other Liability — Combinations | 4 / 5 | 5,189 | Aug 1, 2026 |
| TX | United Fire Group | CMP — Businessowners | 3 / 5 | 3,316 | Sep 15, 2026 |
| TX | Next Insurance (Munich Re) | CMP — Commercial Package | 3 / 5 | 9,708 | Dec 11, 2026 |
Also on the radar
The Hanover's Texas GL filing above (+8.7%, 1,961 policyholders) also restructured its abuse-hazard classes and pulled its educational-institution deviations — residential-care facilities take the steepest hit. And a wave of Colorado commercial filings — package, general liability and businessowners — cleared at a 0% headline this month while masking 30%+ underlying increases. That's the Liberty Mutual / State Auto migration, and it's the lead story on Page 3.
The Southwest's biggest structural move hides behind a 0%: Liberty Mutual is re-rating the entire State Auto book in Colorado.
Same region, the filings whose headline rate hides the action: new scoring algorithms, underwriting-guideline changes and coverage contraction approved in July. The throughline is a migration — Liberty Mutual absorbing its acquired State Auto book at a 0% headline that conceals 30%-plus underlying dislocation — alongside a genuine wave of third-party driver and property scoring across Texas and Utah.
Industries in this page's filings
Lead Filing · Scoring & Migration
Liberty Mutual migrates the entire Colorado State Auto book at 0% — while 30%+ of the real increase hides under a 10%-a-year cap
Approved July 31. In a coordinated set of filings, Liberty Mutual is moving its acquired State Auto policies in Colorado — commercial auto, commercial package, general liability and businessowners alike — onto Liberty Mutual rates, rules and forms. Every filing carries a 0% headline. The reality underneath: most migrating insureds face indicated increases above 30%, and on the general-liability book specifically, 54% of policyholders sit above a 30% indicated need. A three-year transition plan caps the move at plus-or-minus 10% per year, so the 0% is a schedule, not a reprieve — the increase is real and simply spread across renewals. Any Colorado account still on legacy State Auto paper should assume it is now on a multi-year escalator and price accordingly.
New Scoring Models — The Trend Is Real
Texas commercial auto goes to driver scores: Federated adds CarFax and LexisNexis tiering
Federated Mutual's Texas commercial-auto filing is only +1.9% overall, but it withdraws the old accident-experience-rating plan and replaces it with a tier factor built on LexisNexis driver scores and CarFax vehicle history — with steep auto-dealer and UM/UIM hikes underneath. It doesn't stand alone: BITCO layered on a proprietary 45-tier driver model (a -3.2% headline against a 40.7% indication), and Travelers aligned its new Texas program's credit bands to Progressive. Read alongside Progressive's v5.0 on Page 1, third-party scoring is now pricing Texas fleets.
Allstate raises Utah landlord packages 10.8% on updated wildfire scoring
Allstate's Utah landlord package takes 10.8%, driven by updated wildfire modeling that scores each location's exposure — and it follows a 22.3% increase in 2023, compounding to roughly 35% over the period. Owners of rental and habitational property in wildfire-scored territories carry the increase whether or not they've had a claim. Effective July 13 — already in market.
Federated's Utah BOP is 0% overall — and rebuilt around predictive property and liability tiers
Filed revenue-neutral at 0%, Federated Mutual's Utah businessowners revision introduces property and liability tier-factor plans powered by the ISO Risk Analyzer, Betterview aerial roof data and credit indicators. The average is meaningless: individual premiums swing sharply depending on how the model scores the roof, the classes and the owner's credit. The scoring is the change.
Underwriting Guideline Changes
Oregon Mutual confirms it has stopped writing new California business
A 0% California BOP rule filing carries its real news in the guidelines: Oregon Mutual has stopped writing new business in the state to manage surplus. Existing insureds keep their coverage — the 3% automatic building-limit increase is even extended through 2029 — but there's no new-business market here, so any California account that needs to move off another carrier has one fewer door. On a $69.2M book, agents should know the appetite is closed. Effective September 1.
The Hartford takes 10% on Colorado commercial auto — against a 25.2% indication
The Hartford's Nutmeg unit lands 10.0% on Colorado commercial auto, weighted toward liability and uninsured-motorist coverage, against a 25.2% indicated need — barely 40% of what it says the book requires, so more is loading. It also adds vehicle-wrap limit increases, a single physical-damage deductible option and a premium-audit endorsement. Effective August 1.
Coverage Contraction & Market Exits
Harborway bolts total roofing and open-roof exclusions onto its Nevada GL
Rather than a stated book-wide rate, Spinnaker's Harborway program in Nevada raised its loss-cost multiplier and added a stack of exclusions: total roofing-operations, open-roof and spontaneous-combustion exclusions, plus a batch clause and new fees. Roofers and contractors are the target — several classes lose coverage they had, not just pay more for it. Effective November 1.
Liberty Mutual's -0.2% California umbrella hides a full rating rebuild
The headline is essentially flat — -0.2% — but the filing replaces auto base rates with a 35.09% base excess factor, swaps minimum premiums for a $425 expense constant, and adds fleet-size and vehicle-type factors, all against a 24.2% indication. The average conceals large individual swings; auto-heavy and larger-fleet umbrella accounts can move well beyond the headline in either direction. Effective October 26.
Trean exits the Oklahoma firefighter comp class entirely
Trean's 7710 and Benchmark companies are withdrawing from the Oklahoma firefighter and fire-department workers-comp class and non-renewing every existing policy by January 2027. The book is tiny, but volunteer and municipal fire departments in a niche, hard-to-place class are losing a market and need a replacement lined up well before non-renewal hits. Effective July 14.
Also on the radar
Two genuine bright spots cut against the grain: Chubb lowered its Colorado workers-comp large-risk alternative-rating threshold from $500,000 to $100,000 (4,160 policyholders), opening negotiated rating to mid-market accounts, and AAIS filed a -7.1% Oklahoma general-liability decrease while adding classes for renewable energy, biofuels and BYOB restaurants. Meanwhile Next Insurance's Texas package (9,708 policyholders, on Page 2) introduced industry 'Market Group Factors' that surcharge day-care and auto-service classes — a quieter scoring move riding under a 4.8% headline.
