California is where commercial auto and comp are re-pricing — and ISO just moved the floor.
Every filing here cleared the same screen: unfavorable, high-severity rate increases touching 1,000-plus policyholders or whole-program books, by disposition date in September. One stands apart — ISO nearly doubled California's advisory loss costs for long-haul trucking, which resets pricing for every carrier that builds on them. Here's what your clients are about to feel.
Industries in this issue's filings
Also Cleared This Cycle
The Hartford's 3.5% CA comp average masks renewals to +67.6%
Filed Sep 16, effective Jan 1. The Hartford adopts California's new WCIRB advisory pure premiums with a lower loss-cost multiplier and territory credits — a 3.5% average across a 126,143-policyholder, $662M book. But some Hartford paper companies run double-digit averages, and individual employers reach +67.6%. Who feels it: mid-size CA employers on the higher-LCM companies. Move now: check which Hartford entity each client sits on before you quote the renewal.
State Farm files +7.4% CA comp on a book it already stopped writing
Filed Sep 30, effective Dec 1. State Farm adopts the September 2026 WCIRB pure premiums for a 7.4% average — but the tell is the gap to its 27.8% indication and the fact this book has been closed to new California comp since May 2023. In-force policies keep renewing (they're not being non-renewed), just at a climbing rate on a runoff book. Who feels it: existing State Farm CA comp insureds, 16,755 of them. Move now: a runoff carrier filing well below indication is a shop-the-renewal signal.
Sentry raises Texas motor-carrier liability +18.2% — half its indication
Approved Sep 8, effective Dec 1. Sentry's Texas trucking (true motor-carrier) liability rises 18.2% on persistently unprofitable results, with physical damage left flat and a new scoring model layered on. The indicated need was 35.3% — roughly double what was filed — so this is a down payment, not the full correction. Who feels it: Texas for-hire fleets, 626 policyholders on a $45.6M book. Move now: budget for a second-wave filing and tighten driver and MVR files now.
W.R. Berkley re-tiers CA comp by size — big accounts take ~+13%
Filed Sep 9, effective Oct 1. Preferred Employers (W.R. Berkley) moves California comp to a three-tier, premium-size structure: small accounts dip slightly while accounts over $150K jump about 13% and lose their premium discounts. The whole-program book runs $97.7M in premium, count not reported, across farm, staffing, clinic and restaurant classes. Who feels it: larger California employers. Move now: any client crossing the $150K premium line should model the tier change before renewal.
Why is almost everything California this month?
Four of the five page-one stories are California, and that's not a sampling quirk. The WCIRB pure-premium update landed in September, so every California comp writer refiled at once — and ISO's loss-cost reset put commercial auto on the same clock. The one out-of-state story, Sentry's Texas trucking increase, is the same pressure from a different angle: severity that keeps outrunning the rates. Expect the adopting-carrier wave to build through year-end.
Utah and the Mountain West are where the other commercial lines are re-pricing.
Same screen, every other commercial line: general liability, commercial packages and BOPs clearing unfavorable rate increases in September. The West's wider-market slate is lighter than its comp and auto books, but the increases that qualified are steep — and most are filed well below the actuarial indication, which tells you more is coming.
Industries in this issue's filings
Three More Worth a Look
The Hartford's Utah package: +5.9% filed, 31.5% indicated
Approved Sep 8, effective Dec 12. Rates edge up 5.9% overall, but new market-group factors fall hardest on real estate, habitational and restaurant risks — and the 31.5% indication means this modest move is a placeholder. Across 7,360 policyholders and $14.3M in premium, including auto dealers and retail. Move now: watch the next refiling on this book closely.
AmTrust hits Idaho BOP +21.4% with a new scoring band
Approved Sep 15, effective Oct 1. Idaho businessowners rates jump about 21% behind a new risk-band scoring model, sharply higher liquor-liability costs and new per-endorsement contractor fees. The indication was 69.7%, so even at +21% this is filed light. A small book — 33 policyholders, $195K — but the signal is loud. Who feels it: Idaho restaurants, bars and trades. Move now: re-quote liquor-exposed accounts early.
Spinnaker loads Washington liability with new trade surcharges
Approved Sep 11, effective Aug 1. The modest 5.4% headline understates it: Spinnaker adds trade surcharges, an agent-placement load and new service fees across a 1,116-policyholder construction and trades book. Who feels it: Washington contractors and specialty trades. Move now: price the fees in — the surcharge stack can move the real number well past 5%.
Also Filed — Other Commercial Lines
| State | Carrier | Line / Sub-type | Severity | Policyholders | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | State Farm Fire & Casualty | CMP — Sub-TOI Combinations | 3 / 5 | 6,906 | Aug 15, 2026 |
| TX | USLI (Berkshire Hathaway) | CMP — Businessowners | 3 / 5 | 527 | Oct 12, 2026 |
Also on the radar
A few West filings just miss our impact bar but matter: Progressive's Idaho commercial auto indicated nearly 11% yet filed only 2.1% (8,829 policyholders) — a gap that won't hold. State Farm cut Oregon commercial auto 1.9% on strong physical-damage experience, a rare decrease worth quoting against. And biBerk's Texas BOP rebuild nets a 3.3% cut but re-tiers individual accounts hard — see page 3.
The structural filings are the real story: ISO rebuilt California's auto manual, and scoring models are spreading.
Same region, the changes a rate percentage doesn't capture: new scoring algorithms, tier rebuilds, coverage exclusions and a market exit. ISO didn't just raise California auto loss costs — it rewrote the manual every adopting carrier uses. And predictive scoring keeps showing up in BOPs and fleets across the West.
Industries in this page's filings
New Scoring & Tiering Models
biBerk rebuilds Texas BOP scoring — a −3.3% average, wild individual swings
Approved Sep 30, effective Jan 1. A base loss-cost cut plus a multivariate scoring rebuild nets a small 3.3% overall decrease — but the re-tiering is extreme account to account, so the average hides who wins and who gets hit. 13,509 policyholders, $23M book. Who feels it: Texas small businesses re-scored into new tiers. Move now: don't trust the headline cut — pull the per-account impact.
Federated scores Oregon BOPs on aerial roof imagery and liens
Filed Sep 17, effective Dec 1. Federated Mutual introduces predictive property and liability tiering built on aerial roof scores, liens and claim history — a flat overall rate that masks wide individual swings as class factors rebalance. Who feels it: Oregon contractors, auto dealers and retail on older or lower-scored roofs. Move now: a bad roof score can move a renewal even with a clean loss history — flag it before quoting.
Underwriting & Coverage Contraction
Market Exits & New Programs
Also Filed This Cycle
Also on the radar
More structural moves across the West: The Hanover's California comp re-tiers gyms and substandard accounts on new pure premiums (+5.5%, 693 policyholders); a Liberty Mutual / Employers of Wausau group actually cut California comp 4.6% while sharpening tiers (5,149 policyholders, $191M); and Imperium tightened Idaho fleet tier qualification, swapping a broad frequency metric for specific driver and MVR criteria. Great American added two Idaho writing companies to broaden its appetite.
