October's bill landed in the liability layers — and the biggest books still filed at a fraction of their need.
The month's sharpest increases sat in general liability and umbrella, where carriers took 11% to 62% and still filed under their own indications. The month's biggest books, biBERK's 71,006-account California comp and Erie's 42,626-account North Carolina package, took single digits. Underneath: rating plans built on roof imagery and years in business, liability exclusions for silica, PFAS and gen-AI, and a fresh round of program exits.
October at a glance
Northeast Auto's last resort, GL's second bite
New Jersey's commercial auto residual market (AIPSO) took +25%, its second increase this year, on 1,506 hard-to-place risks. That's where fleets the voluntary market won't write end up. The Hanover took Connecticut small-commercial GL +25.4% a year after a +21.4% hike, Nationwide lifted New York umbrella +22.4% against a 37.7% need, and USLI moved 5,252 New York package accounts off functional building valuation.
Southeast Contractor liability reprices
Erie's North Carolina package filing reached 42,626 accounts at +5.5%. The steep moves were in liability: AmTrust took Georgia contractor GL +62.2%, with individual accounts up to +318%, and Travelers took Georgia umbrella +11.1% against a 108.4% indication. Old Republic stacked +12.5% North Carolina auto on last year's +14.6%, and AmTrust re-tiered 22,285 Georgia comp accounts at 0%. Florida is not in this data feed.
Midwest / Central Umbrella wakes up, comp keeps falling
State Farm took Colorado commercial umbrella +30%, its first change since 2013, and Auto-Owners took Colorado package +8.1%, its fourth straight increase. Auto pressure fell hardest on public fleets (AIG Colorado +39%), paratransit (Grange Ohio +10.9%) and brand-new businesses (Pekin's new years-in-business surcharge). Every comp filing that moved rate went down, and West Bend's 0% Indiana GL review swings accounts from −41% to +88%.
West California comp underfiles
The country's biggest book, biBERK's 71,006-account California comp program, filed +6% against a 30.8% indication and now places low credit-score accounts in its highest-cost tier. Farmers added +8.6% California comp on 20,194 accounts. Utah fleets took double digits (Pekin +18.2%, Great West +10%), and The Hanover wrote silica out of Texas, Montana and Oregon GL.
Rate trends by line
| Line | Typical approved increase | Where it concentrated | Notable carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Auto | +5% to +13% (median +9%) | DE, UT, NC, OH, IN, NJ; residual market NJ | AIPSO (NJ +25%), Old Republic (NC +12.5%), Pekin (UT +18.2%, IN +11.3%), Grange (OH +10.9%), State Farm (NJ +10.2%) |
| Commercial Auto (public & specialty fleets) | +9% to +39% | CO public entities, VA and WI haulers | AIG (CO +39%), Canal (VA +9% vs. 36.1% indicated), MS Transverse (WI truckers +15%) |
| Workers Comp | Flat to down; California the exception | CA up; MI, GA and the Southeast flat or down | biBERK (CA +6%), Farmers (CA +8.6%), AmTrust (GA 0% re-tier), Fremont (MI −3.1%) |
| General Liability | +10% to +62% (median +10%) | Contractors in GA, CT, PA, MA, VA | AmTrust (GA +62.2%), The Hanover (CT +25.4%, PA +17.7%), Spinnaker (MA +15.5%, VA +18.1%) |
| Umbrella / Excess | +6% to +30% | CO, NY, GA, WI, AZ | State Farm (CO +30%), Nationwide (NY +22.4%), Travelers (GA +11.1%), West Bend (WI +6.3%, AZ +8.1%) |
| Commercial Package / BOP | +3% to +9% (median +4%) | NC, CO, KY, NY; Main Street | Erie (NC +5.5%), Auto-Owners (CO +8.1%), Spinnaker (KY +8.8%), USLI (NY +3.8%) |
| Structural / scoring (0% overall) | Revenue-neutral, wide swings | KS, IN, WI, GA, DC, NC | West Bend (IN −41% to +88%), Federated (KS roof imagery), Next (WI), Accredited (roof score) |
The Big Picture
Rank October by rate and the liability layers light up: AmTrust's +62.2% Georgia contractor GL, State Farm's +30% Colorado umbrella (its first move since 2013), The Hanover's +25.4% Connecticut GL, Nationwide's +22.4% New York umbrella. Rank it by reach and the picture flips. The month's biggest books, biBERK's 71,006-account California comp program, Erie's 42,626-account North Carolina package and AmTrust's 22,285-account Georgia comp, took 6%, 5.5% and 0%.
The gap between approved and indicated is still the number to watch. biBERK filed California comp at +6% against a 30.8% need. Travelers took Georgia umbrella +11.1% against 108.4%. Canal took Virginia fleet auto +9% against 36.1%, and Donegal took Pennsylvania auto +5% against 29%. Those balances don't disappear; they come back in the next filing.
The rating engine kept getting rebuilt. Twenty-two filings this month carried scoring-model changes. Pekin added a years-in-business factor that surcharges new ventures up to 20% in Indiana, Wisconsin and Utah. Accredited and Federated now price buildings off aerial roof scores, and biBERK routes low-credit California comp accounts to its highest-cost company. A 0% filing can still swing individual accounts from −41% to +88%, as West Bend's Indiana GL review does.
The exits are program unwinds again. SiriusPoint's Nirvana trucking program non-renews in Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Missouri; the TowMAX towing program is leaving Pennsylvania and Kansas; and Berkshire's care-provider program pulled out of Georgia, Missouri and Oregon. Erie filed program withdrawals in Virginia, Indiana and Tennessee, including its legacy Fivestar contractors book, and State Farm is dropping Kansas daycare.
Cross-Region Patterns
The excess layer is repricing
Umbrella moved in four regions at once: State Farm Colorado +30% (first change since 2013), Nationwide New York +22.4%, Travelers Georgia +11.1% against a 108.4% indication, West Bend +6.3% in Wisconsin and +8.1% in Arizona. Verdict severity is reaching the excess layer, and carriers are pricing it now.
General liability takes a second bite
The Hanover's +25.4% Connecticut GL follows last year's +21.4%. Old Republic's +12.5% North Carolina auto follows +14.6%, and Auto-Owners Colorado posted its fourth straight increase. Back-to-back filings are the pattern, not the exception. Plan renewals assuming the next one is coming.
New businesses pay a startup tax
Pekin's new years-in-business factor surcharges businesses under a year old by 20%, stepping down over three years, in Indiana, Wisconsin and Utah. Old Republic's Alabama tiers price fleets with under 23 months of operating authority at up to 16 times the base. Newer accounts are being priced on tenure, not just loss history.
Comp stays soft, except in California
Outside California every workers comp filing that moved rate went down or held flat: Fremont Michigan −3.1% against a −27.6% indication, Crum & Forster Michigan −8.7%, AmTrust Georgia 0%. California went the other way, with biBERK +6% and Farmers +8.6%, both well under their indications.
Liability exclusions are spreading
The Hanover wrote silica out of GL in Texas, Montana, Oregon, Virginia and Louisiana, and restricted stone-cutting trades in Illinois, North Dakota and Oklahoma. Liberty Mutual added PFAS and chemical exclusions in Georgia and South Carolina, and gen-AI and tracking-pixel exclusions spread across Berkshire, Liberty, Munich Re and Travelers paper.
Coverage & Structural Watch
Roof imagery and credit are the new rating plan
Accredited surcharges buildings with the worst Cape Analytics roof score 20% (DC, NC); Federated's Kansas BOP adds 22% to 36% for low Betterview roof scores; EMC moved Connecticut roofs older than 15 years to actual cash value. biBERK routes low D&B/credit California comp accounts to its highest loss-cost tier.
Valuation and abuse coverage tighten
USLI moved 5,252 New York package accounts off functional building valuation to actual cash value, and Erie repriced abuse-and-molestation coverage across a 12,908-account West Virginia package book.
Contractors on new residential work lose coverage
West Bend's 0% general liability review, filed in six states, excludes contractors working on new multi-family and tract housing. That's a coverage change contractors will find at claim time, not at renewal.
No ISO advisory this month
No ISO or AAIS advisory loss-cost filing cleared the screen in October, so September's +93.8% California commercial auto advisory remains the most recent market-wide signal. Expect adopting carriers to keep filing off it.
Market exits & withdrawals
Eighteen filings exited or withdrew a program this cycle, mostly MGA and program unwinds. This is the clearest prospecting list in the issue. Know which of your accounts sits on one before the non-renewal letter arrives.
| Carrier | Line / Segment | States | Policyholders | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SiriusPoint (Nirvana MGA) | Connected Non-Fleet trucking program | PA, SC, MO | all in-force (~80) | Nov 17, 2026 |
| Clear Spring / Incline (TowMAX) | Towing & recovery package + auto | PA, KS | all in-force | Dec 2026 – Jan 2027 |
| AmGUARD (Berkshire GUARD, CPIS) | Care-provider program | GA, MO, OR | all in-force (34+) | Oct 2026 – Jan 2027 |
| Erie | Program withdrawals (incl. legacy Fivestar contractors, IN) | VA, IN, TN | 2,328 VA · 686 IN contractors | Jul 1, 2027 |
| State Farm | Daycare (commercial package) | KS | 195 (155 daycare policies) | Jan 1, 2027 |
| Markel | Farm package program | NY | 40 (100% of book) | through 2026 |
| Argonaut (Trident) | Public-entity auto program | NY | remaining policies | program withdrawn |
| COUNTRY Mutual | Commercial farm & ranch | NV | n/d | Aug 1, 2027 |
Biggest filings by reach
| State | Carrier | Line | Change | Policyholders | $/policy | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA | biBERK (Berkshire Hathaway Direct) | Workers Comp | +6.0% | 71,006 | $5,245 | Nov 1, 2026 |
| NC | Erie | Commercial Package | +5.5% | 42,626 | $3,477 | Mar 1, 2027 |
| GA | AmTrust | Workers Comp | 0.0% (re-tier) | 22,285 | $3,942 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| CA | Farmers | Workers Comp | +8.6% | 20,194 | $6,565 | Jan 1, 2027 |
| KS | State Farm | Commercial Auto | +0.8% | 17,922 | $438 | Dec 28, 2026 |
| NY | USLI | Commercial Package | +3.8% | 17,908 | $5,185 | Oct 26, 2026 |
| WV | Erie | Commercial Package | +0.4% | 12,908 | $4,247 | Feb 1, 2027 |
| NJ | State Farm | Commercial Auto | +10.2% | 12,167 | $4,614 | Feb 5, 2027 |
| CO | Auto-Owners | Commercial Package | +8.1% | 9,806 | $5,779 | Mar 1, 2026 |
What it means — your move
Re-quote umbrellas now
The excess layer moved in four regions at once. Pull every umbrella and excess renewal for Q1 2027, especially State Farm, Nationwide, Travelers and West Bend accounts, and market them before the next round of filings lands.
Lead with the indication
biBERK filed +6% against a 30.8% need; Travelers +11.1% against 108.4%. Showing a client the number their carrier said it needed changes the renewal conversation, and positions you before the second increase arrives.
Work the exit list first
Trucking (SiriusPoint), towing (TowMAX), care providers (AmGUARD), daycare (State Farm Kansas) and Erie's legacy contractors are all non-renewing. These accounts need a new home on a deadline. Find yours first.
Check the new rating factors
New ventures are now surcharged up to 20% on Pekin paper, roofs are scored from the air, and credit drives California comp tiers. Ask which side of each new factor your clients land on. The 0% filings are where accounts quietly swing ±40%.
Sell the soft comp market outside California
Comp is flat to down almost everywhere except California. Use it to round out accounts where auto and liability are rising, and to win the whole account.
On the Filing Watch news-read this month
The October rundown covers the liability layers repricing while the biggest books underfile, the new startup and roof-score rating factors, and the program-exit list. Available with this issue.
