California comp is filing far below its indications — and Utah fleets are taking double digits.
Every story here is a real rate increase on workers comp or commercial auto, disposed in October, with severity labeled as filed. Only two increases cleared our full screen this month, both California comp, so we went a layer deeper rather than pad the page. The pattern is consistent: carriers are asking for less than their actuaries say they need, and where a client lands (tier, territory, fleet size) matters more than the average. Here's where your clients feel it first.
Industries in this issue's filings
More Increases This Cycle
Farmers takes California comp up 8.6% — Mid-Century renewals reach +38.3%
Filed Oct 15, effective Jan 1. Farmers lifts California comp 8.6% against a 13.3% indication, with Mid-Century carrying most of the book. Under the average, San Fernando Valley and Burbank territory factors rise to about 1.5; painters, tile setters, plasterers, hotels and auto-body shops pick up class debits; and the 10% safety-group discount is gone. Overnight convenience stores and fast-food restaurants must meet new security rules to stay eligible. Move now: flag safety-group members. They lose the discount on top of the rate.
ICW holds California comp at +0.2% — but Los Angeles employers take a 20% territory load
Filed Oct 2, effective Dec 1. A near-flat average on a $705.2M book hides real geography: Los Angeles / Long Beach employers carry a new 1.20 territory factor; Bakersfield, Pasadena, Santa Monica and the San Fernando Valley 1.10; Ventura 1.08. Carpentry and framing classes come off instant quote and go to manual underwriting, and the 15% payroll-reporting deposit option is eliminated (275 insureds default to 10%). Who feels it: LA-basin employers and framing contractors. Move now: re-quote LA accounts before December renewals.
Pekin lifts Utah business auto 18.2% and adds a new-venture surcharge
Approved Oct 15, effective Jan 1. Liability drives it, indicated at +25.8% versus +8.6% for physical damage. Pekin also adds a years-in-business factor: a 20% surcharge for businesses under a year old, tapering to 9% by year three. Risk-score tiers 7–10 carry multipliers up to 1.40, extra-heavy trucks and tractors get steeper increased-limit factors, and individual changes reach +78%. Who feels it: newer Utah businesses and heavy-vehicle fleets. Move now: start-ups should shop before the surcharge lands.
Great West Casualty takes Utah commercial auto +10% — liability base rates up 18.6%
Approved Oct 5, effective Feb 1. Great West (an Old Republic company) files this on the heels of +10.9% last November. Liability base rates rise about 18.6% across every radius and zone (a $1M, 75-mile base goes from $8,097 to $9,608), with a 13.9% indication behind it. Fleets of one to four power units carry size debits up to 1.18 on liability and 1.27 on physical damage, and dump, flatbed and hotshot operations tick higher. Who feels it: small Utah truck fleets. Move now: model the size debit before renewal talks.
Why so few big books this month?
October was thin on qualifying comp and auto increases: only two cleared our full screen, both California comp. Rather than run weaker headlines, we added ICW's California filing (a near-flat average with real territory loads) and two Utah commercial-auto increases that miss our 1,000-policyholder bar (Pekin's 868, Great West's 522) but carry double-digit moves. The common thread is the gap: every filing here that reports an indication files below it. And watch Texas auto 'decreases' — several net to a cut while specific tiers and fleets climb. See page 3.
A quiet month for other lines — and the increases that landed are filed at half their indications or less.
No general liability, package or umbrella filing cleared our full screen in the West this October. So we relaxed the bar to show every other-line rate increase we could verify, smaller books and severity-3 filings included, labeled honestly. The signal still matters: Arizona care and social-services accounts and Mountain West public entities are taking increases well short of what the actuaries asked for, which tells you more is coming.
Industries in this issue's filings
Two More Worth a Look
West Bend's Arizona umbrella: +8.1% filed, 16.5% indicated
Approved Oct 9, effective Feb 1, 2027. Umbrella rates rise 8.1%, about half the indication, as underlying GL and auto factors for the social-services and assisted-living programs climb up to 10%. Accounts using owner-operator trucks also pay 10% more per vehicle ($1,375 for long haul, up from $1,250). Who feels it: the same Arizona care accounts in this page's lead, now hit on both layers. Move now: quote GL and umbrella together so the stacked increase isn't a surprise.
American Modern takes Montana public-entity packages up 15.8% — against an 88.2% indication
Approved Oct 8, effective Jul 1, 2027. A tiny book, but a loud signal. Schools and educational entities see a 28.2% GL base-rate increase, the large-account modification (±50% pricing flexibility) is eliminated, older roofs face cosmetic exclusions or ACV settlement unless the account pays a 2.5% load, and other public risks get a $100,000 pollution sublimit. A twin Idaho filing landed the same month (table below). Who feels it: Montana school districts and public entities. Move now: review roof valuation terms before the July cycle.
Also Filed — Other Commercial Lines
| State | Carrier | Line / Sub-type | Severity | Policyholders | Effective |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ID | American Family Home (American Modern) | CMP — Public Entity Package (+12.5%, ind. 77.6%) | 3 / 5 | 5 | Jul 1, 2027 |
Also on the radar
Rate decreases with sharp edges: Spinnaker's Montana BOP averages −5.7%, yet 26 insureds face increases over 30% (up to +151%) as census-block property loss costs reset. Everspan's Oregon BOP cuts 14.2% overall while a dozen policyholders still take +30% or more. And Trisura's California commercial package program prices at 0% against a 13.6% indication — a rate that won't stay put.
Coverage is shrinking faster than rates are rising: silica, freight brokering and a care-provider exit.
Same region, the changes a rate percentage doesn't capture. October's West filings were dominated by exclusions: engineered-stone silica, trucking companies that also broker freight, contractor and subcontractor carve-outs. Add a market exit that continues last month's story, and several 'rate decreases' that hide sharp individual increases.
Industries in this page's filings
Market Exits
Scoring & Tiering
Coverage Contraction
Progressive narrows Oregon BOP with contractor, animal and safeguard exclusions
Approved Oct 8, effective Dec 11. No rate change, but a long list of carve-outs: contractors doing exterior work above 45 feet, trenching below 6 feet, ground-up construction management, tree care, roads or sewer work are excluded outright; so is work by uninsured subcontractors without written agreements and matching limits, and dogs (16 listed breeds or any bite history) plus farm and wild animals. A protective-safeguards condition can also void fire and theft coverage. Who feels it: Oregon contractors and building owners. Move now: re-read the forms with contractor clients before December.
Sentry carves freight brokering out of Utah trucking coverage — and files the same in Idaho and Nevada
Approved Oct 9, effective Dec 1. No rate change, but motor carriers that also broker loads, arrange freight, trip-lease or forward (including via digital load boards or automated carrier matching) lose coverage for that side of the business. Matching Sentry filings landed in Idaho and Nevada the same week. Who feels it: Western trucking companies with brokerage arms. Move now: ask motor-carrier clients whether they broker overflow loads. If they do, place broker liability separately.
Also Filed This Cycle
Also on the radar
More exclusions spreading across the West: Allianz (Montana GL) and Allied World (New Mexico umbrella) carve out wildfire-exposed operations; Liberty Mutual (New Mexico GL) and Tokio Marine (California comp underwriting) target PFAS and related chemicals; and BOP writers sharing the same forms — Spinnaker, Benchmark and Everspan — added uninsured-subcontractor and delivery exclusions in Montana, New Mexico, Nevada and Utah. State Farm added assault-and-battery, abuse and generative-AI exclusions to Nevada package and umbrella policies.
